Dak Prescott vs. Justin Herbert
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When ‘experts’ rank the top quarterbacks in the NFL, Justin Herbert is consistently in the top 5, while Dak Prescott ranks near the bottom end of the top 10. Perhaps journalists use the star on Prescott’s helmet as an excuse to use him as bait for engagement. But either way, I wanted to explore why Dak seems to get unwarranted hate as opposed to the leniency shown towards Herbert. Before tonight’s game, the two have only faced each other once in the NFL, with Prescott and the Cowboys coming out on top, in week 3 of 2021, 20-17.
Justin Herbert has been in the league since 2020. His first three seasons, he has records of 7&9, 9&8 and 10&7, making the playoffs once. In this playoff game, the LA Chargers lost a 27-point lead to Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars. Dak Prescott’s first three seasons in the NFL look a little better than Herbert’s, with records of 13&3, 9&7 and 10&6, making the playoffs twice in that period. The Cowboys went one and done against the Green Bay Packers in Dak’s first season but managed one better two years later, beating the Seattle Seahawks before losing to the LA Rams, leaving Prescott at 1&2 in the playoffs in his first three seasons.
The stats read very similar through the beginning of their careers, Herbert throwing more passes and thus more touchdowns and picks, 94 touchdowns and 35 interceptions, compared to Prescott’s 67 touchdowns and 25 interceptions. Both TD:INT ratio being just under 2.7 touchdowns per pick. Prescott, however, was a lot more efficient with his legs early on in his career, running similar amounts, Dak had 18 touchdowns compared to Herberts, 8.
It is hard to compare these quarterbacks since Herbert entered the league as Prescott has dealt with multiple injuries, including a freak ankle injury that put him out for the season in week 5 of 2020. It could also seem unfair on Herbert to make comparisons to a QB who has 5 more years’ experience. The numbers would favour Herbert in this situation, however, with Prescott working his way back from injury, he threw a career high 15 interceptions in just 12 games last year, a very uncharacteristically bad season for the Cowboys QB, who averages 9 picks a season over the course of his career. Herbert, comparably, averages just under 12.
Time will tell as to how much of his potential Herbert will endeavour to seize. But through three seasons and many plaudits, it is hard to argue that this potential is not currently being fulfilled, in a division, which bar the Kansas City Chiefs, contains the LV Raiders and the Denver Broncos, both who have been bad for a while now. Herbert and the Chargers have still only made the playoffs once.
I wonder how long the Chargers QB will have before the media treat him the way in which they treat Dak Prescott. I would suggest that he will have the length of his career. An intriguing head-to-head of two QB’s comparable in stats, but very incomparable in the way in which they are treated by those who analyse the game.